Breeders' Cup Analysis - Matty J

Breeders' Cup Analysis - Matty J

Matty J's Breeders’ Cup Preview and Analysis

Breeders’ Cup 2012 – Friday November 2, 2012

Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint
The Breeders’ Cup doesn’t kick off with much of a bang as this race looks like a match between #3 MERIT MAN and #5 SUPER NINETY NINE. MERIT MAN comes into this race as the only stakes winner over a dirt surface, and it came over this one. It was a listed stakes try against a small field, but he did do it well running off by more than five lengths. He’s fast early, and has to be respected. SUPER NINETY NINE made no mistakes in his first trip to the track as he posted a big 85 Beyer breaking his maiden at first asking. He did outwork his multiple Grade 1 winning stablemate Executiveprivledge about a week ago. Also, the runner up from his first race came right back to smash a group of maidens by more than four. Could be the real deal. With NO LASIX being used in the two year old races this season, have a look at #2 CEILING KITTY who is a proven runner without that medication. She has never tried the dirt in her life, but did defeat 26 others when winning a Group 2 stakes at Royal Ascot in June. She has also regularly packed five more pounds than she carries today, and should be a decent price.


Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Marathon
In what is a big grab bag #11 COMMANDER will carry the flag of the Pacific Northwest. COMMANDER has been a new horse since he was gelded earlier this season, and has reeled off six straight stakes wins, all in impressive fashion. It looks like he can run all day, and has put in two good works at Santa Anita. He will be facing the toughest task of his career, but is on a roll, and longshots have been doing well in this race in the past. #1 ATIGUN has taken plenty of attention in his last three tries, all graded races, but hasn’t been able to finish better than 4th. He did get up for a 3rd in the Belmont, but you have to wonder if it was the distance that helped or the weak competition. #2 FAME AND GLORY has plenty of experience winning 14 of his 25 races, but those have all come on the turf. Dirt debut today, and will also be trying out the blinkers for the first time. He was well thought enough in his younger days to take a pair of swings in the Arc de Triomphe and wasn’t far off either time. The only two time winner at the distance in his career, but again – those were on the lawn. Hard to imagine Aidan O’Brian would ship him over for this if they didn’t think they had a shot. #5 JAYCITO has to be respected due to the connections, but has never been this far, and has never won on a dirt surface. #6 CALIDOSCOPIO will try and be the oldest winner at nine of a Breeders’ Cup race. He has been lightly raced this season, and have to think that the connections have been pointing to this spot for a while. He has had no problem with distance races in the past. Former winner of this race #10 ELDAAFER is in good form here, running 3rd behind Pool Play last out who will make his next start in the Classic. He picks up a bunch of weight, and was an also ran in this race last season. #14 JUNIPER PASS has yet to be worse than 5th in any of his 18 starts. Interesting to see Frankie Dettori ride this guy, and while he may not be able to win, he should be included in the bottom of the exotics. It was just last season where he was a two time Grade 2 winner.


Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Anytime that the race is on the turf in the Breeders’ Cup, you have to start by looking at the European invaders. #3 SKY LANTERN looks like one of the best in here, hitting the exacta in all five of her starts. The latest was a dominating win in a Group 1 event where she scored by more than two in the end beating a field of 13. Shedding weight for this, and is experienced without Lasix. #4 FLOTILLA will be trying to launch her assault late, but can’t leave too much work to do. Experienced at a mile, and was able to get up for 4th, beaten a little more than a length after striking trouble the whole way in her last. #10 WATERWAY RUN has won three of her four starts, generally by being right on the lead. Interesting to see her back to America being a Pennsylvania bred, and she could be tough if she gets to the lead without many other pace players in the field. Never discount Dettori on this big day. #12 THE GOLD CHEONGSAM may be a cut below the other Euro’s in this bunch, but has two stakes wins over very large fields, and will be outfitted with blinkers for the first time. Did get a pretty tough post, but could be along for a minor award. On to the American hopes. #1 KITTEN’S POINT is another late runner who will need to weave her way through traffic, or go wide and lose ground like she has in her first two tries. Granted she was able to overcome those wide trips and pick up a win first time out, and then just get nosed out in a blanket finish at Keeneland. No surprise she loves the lawn with her sire being the excellent Kitten’s Joy, and the damsire being Kingmambo. Very sharp trainer should have this gal primed for a big race. If you throw out the two races #2 SUMMER OF FUN has had over wet surfaces, she has been right there both times. Good tactical running style to her, but still has to improve. #5 SPRING VENTURE has yet to taste defeat after three starts, with the last two being stakes events. She did defeat Grade 1 winner Spring in the Air in the Natalma, and the jockey has said this is the best two year old he has been aboard. #6 WATDSDACHANCES has been sensational in her last three, highlighted by a powerful win over a yielding course last out at Belmont. Another who will try and not get too far behind early and work out a trip late. Let’s see how she can get over the very firm Santa Anita course. #13 FLASHY WAYS got no help from the draw being hung wide without much of a run into the first turn. She is clearly talented, but will have to pick up plenty of racing luck from the outside.


Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
#2 EXECUTIVEPRIVLEDGE has won two straight Grade 1’s, and is unbeaten through her five career starts so far. Bejarano took advantage of a speed biased race track last out, but she has plenty of tactical speed in her corner as well. Baffert knew this was a good one before she ever made her debut, and it looks like she will continue to prove him right. Win at the distance, and over the surface – all systems go. #5 DREAMING OF JULIA and #8 KAUAI KATIE both invade from New York, and look to have plenty of talent. Problem is, they both have the same running style, and that’s quick and on the front end. DREAMING OF JULIA was able to just hang on in the Frizette last out in what was her first real test, and she only beat three others. Hard to imagine the two Pletcher runners go after each other, and KAUAI KATIE will be going beyond six furlongs for the first time in her career. #1 BEHOLDER was freaky good when she smashed an allowance field in her first try over a dirt surface. Another in here who has yet to go long, and she was scratched out of the Chandelier which EXECUTIVEPRIVLEDGE won. BEHOLDER should keep the pace honest, but she is bred to sprint and the question will be how far she can take them. #7 BROKEN SPELL has the right running style for this race as there should be a boat load of speed for her to sit well behind and try and run down late. The biggest part of her race that she has to answer will be the surface. She has blossomed in her last four, but they have all come routing on turf and synthetic. BROKEN SPELL tried the dirt, sprinting, in her first two tries and showed little interest. Was she just green and inexperienced, or did she not care for the dirt? Either way the price will be right and she has to be left in the exotics mix.


Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Hard to think the American contingent in here have much of a hope to beat some very sharp three year old fillies from Europe, #4 THE FUGUE and #10 RIDASIYNA. THE FUGUE has looked very good when she has been over the track so far at Santa Anita, and they have been pointing to this race since August. She won a Group 1 race two starts back, at this distance, and versus older company. THE FUGUE has been headed in the right direction all season, and has won her two starts going this far. The gal who necked her out in the Darley Oaks, Shareta, will go off as one as the favorites against the boys in the Turf on Saturday. RIDASIYNA crushed a Group 1 field last out by three and a half lengths, and has done little wrong winning four of her five trips to the track. Late runner has been able to work her way through big fields in the past, but may be giving up first run to THE FUGUE and may have a hard time catching her. #9 MARKETING MIX looked good winning the Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita in her last and she did it from a very tricky post. Problem is, she got a dream set up in there as the half mile time came up in 45:3. Regardless she is a seven time winner over the turf, and is a head away from winning her last four. #8 NAHRAIN will be adding blinkers off a win in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Rider John Velazquez thought it may help her keep her mind on racing, and not lose some interest in the middle part – interesting thing to do off a victory. NAHRAIN just missed in this race last season, but was coming in off four straight victories, where she just got her first win this season. #6 LADY OF SHAMROCK comes in the horse for course with three wins in three tries over the local turf sod. She has been training well, but will be trying to tackle older runners for the first time. Tough task. There doesn’t appear to be much speed at all in here and the #12 IN LINGERE may try and send early and steal it. She comes in off a dominating victory in the Spinster, and zipped a four furlong move in 46:3 over the local turf course. She has always travelled well, and may get brave if she can walk in the early going. #5 NEREID will be scratched.


Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic
There appears to be a ton of early pace on in here, and it looks like it is prime for a horse to come from just off the pace. #5 AWESOME FEATHER is the real deal. She is still lightly raced, and is unbeaten after 10 tries. She looked fantastic crushing a listed stakes field in her last, and it doesn’t appear that she could be doing any better. Running off a layoff is no new thing to her, and today we may get to see how good she really is. #6 ROYAL DELTA won’t offer much value in this spot, and will be looking to win this race in back to back years. ROYAL DELTA hammered a small field in the Beldame at Belmont in her latest, but the beat to LOVE AND PRIDE two back stands out, even if she was giving that rival 10 pounds. Not sure she had much of an excuse in there, other than it being at Saratoga. Similar running style to AWESOME FEATHER, but the value will not be there. There should be four in here that will be looking for the lead #1 GRACE HALL, #2 MY MISS AURELIA, #4 QUESTING and #8 LOVE AND PRIDE. The first three are three year olds, who will be taking on older runners in a stakes race for the first time. The spotlight may be a little too bright for them, as the pace scenario does not play to their favor. Interesting longshot #3 CLASS INCLUDED is another with a perfect stalk and pounce running style. She has done little wrong never finishing outside of the exacta in her 16 tries, but wasn’t taking on a field as good as this one. She is coming into this race in fantastic form being a blowout winner in four straight. Her work the other morning was the best of the day, even after she had to alter course around some other horses. Sometimes when fillies get good, they don’t know when to stop. She may need some help, but she loves the distance, and should have every chance with the setup.


Matty J's Proposed Wagers for the Day

Best Bet – Race 8 - #4 THE FUGUE

Exacta – Race 9 - $2 - 5 , 6 with 3 , 5 , 6 – Cost: $8

Trifecta – Race 6 – 3 , 5 with 1 , 3 , 5 , 10 with 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 10, 12 – Cost: $24

Pick 4 - Big Ticket Play

Race 6 – 1 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 10 , 12
Race 7 - 2 , 8
Race 8 – 4 , 10
Race 9 – 5 , 6
Cost: $48

Pick 4 - Smaller Ticket Play

Race 6 – 1 , 3 , 5
Race 7 – 2 , 7 , 8
Race 8 – 4
Race 9 – 3 , 5 , 6
Cost: $27

Breeders’ Cup Saturday – November 3, 2012

Race 2 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview
Before getting into the meat of the card, #7 MOULIN DE MOUGIN is an interesting horse in here at 6-1 on the morning line. She was trying to get into the Juvenile Fillies Turf going a mile, but was hung up on the also eligible list. Either way, this looks like a great spot to find some value in her. Her mom, Cambiocorsa was a monster coming down the hill as she is going to do today. Mommy won eight of 10 down the unique turf course, picking up four stakes victories along the way. Both of MOULIN DE MOUGIN’s siblings have won going down the hill, and so did this gal in her first effort. She has raced without Lasix in her first two starts, and now cannot in this bunch. May give her a leg up on the competition. #3 SNOW KING was another that got hung on the also’s, and is in good hands for his North American debut. #6 ONE FIRM CAT also owns a win coming down the hill, and that is a big advantage.


Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
As always, the prime contenders for this race will be from Europe, but it looks like Chad Brown has a pair of live bullets as well. #3 GEORGE VANCOUVER has just a single win to his credit so far, but he has been taking on some very tough competition. He was just topped three starts ago in a Group 1 by less than a length to Reckless Abandon – unbeaten in five with two Group 1 and two Group 2 scores and in his last start Dawn Approach – another unbeaten in five tries, and winner of two straight Group 1 races. GEORGE VANCOUVER should appreciate the added furlong he gets today in his first try at a mile. The drawback is he just raced on October 13th, and how much did the ship take out of him. #6 DUNDONNELL has done nothing wrong in his four starts so far, and did defeat next out Group 2 winner Steeler two starts back. Looks to have plenty of tactical speed, and lands in a perfect post for him. Big threat. #2 ARTIGIANO fell just short to Steeler in that Group 2 event, so he looks like he should fit with these. Connections are solid, and you have to like his progression, improving in each trip to the track. #5 FANTASTIC MOON was sent off the favorite in the ARTIGIANO/Steeler race and had a rough trip before settling for a 5th place finish. The pair of Chad Brown runners #8 BALANCE THE BOOKS and #9 NOBLE TUNE have drawn side by side. BALANCE THE BOOKS comes in a narrow winner of two straight, both against tough stakes fields at Saratoga and Keeneland. Very late runner may not appreciate losing that last 1/16th on the cutback to a flat mile. NOBLE TUNE looks like he may be more suited for the distance and comes in with two easy victories under his belt. Both of the runners from those starts have come right back to win their next as well. May be the best hope for an American horse if Chad can carry his outstanding form from the East Coast. #10 JOHA is the probably pace setter, but won’t get the same scenario he did when winning the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He was allowed to crawl on the front end, and when the rest of the field packed up on the turn, the rest lost their chance. #4 GERVINHO has done nothing wrong in his two starts so far, getting a hard fought maiden score and then picking up a late running win in a minor stakes going a mile. It’s no surprise that he loves the lawn being by Unusual Heat. Bejarano knows him well and he could be the sleeper in this bunch if he is good enough. #1 SUMMIT COUNTY is out of Socorro County who was a three time stakes winner at Hastings Racecourse.


Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
#9 GROUPIE DOLL has been a killer since the blinkers were added in her last four starts. She has crushed three straight quality stakes fields, and looks every bit the part of the even money shot. GROUPIE DOLL has put in two fast works since her last run, and is very hard to poke a hole in. Posted a career best Beyer number in her last start on dirt. #10 SWITCH has been the runner up in this event twice now and should love that the race is in her back yard. She has hit the board in five of her six tries at Santa Anita, and won three of eight at the distance. SWITCH has had a bit off an off year hitting the board just once from her five tries, but her three blazing works leading up to this may be the signal she has turned it around. #6 TURBULENT DESCENT flopped as the chalk in his race last season, and has since been privately purchased and transferred barns. She won the Grade 1 Ballerina two starts back at Saratoga, but then turned in a head scratcher at Belmont. Seems to be a little inconsistent to back with much conviction, but when she is on her game, she is one of the best sprinters around. #8 MUSICAL ROMANCE won this race last season, but was coming into the race in much better form. She was just able to get up at the wire, while under a hand ride, to win a listed stakes last out. Is a Grade 1 winner this season, but what did she beat? Her odds will be much less appealing than the 20-1 she was last season. #3 DUST AND DIAMONDS has won three straight and seems to still be improving with each start. Hammered MUSICAL ROMANCE in that race, but has enjoyed plenty of time off between her starts and this will be back pretty quick for her. #5 RUMOR could be the upsetter in here. She is still a lightly raced four year old, who has won almost half of her starts. She is a three time winner over the local strip, and while this will be a class jump, she is certainly feeling good about herself with some extremely sharp works coming in to this. She hasn’t been able to start twice off the bench often, but does tend to make it a winning one.


Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Looks like two horses will be vying for favoritism in this one #6 SHAKLEFORD and #7 EMCEE. SHACKLEFORD is the more accomplished miler of the two winning the Met Mile back in May. He was 2nd in this race last season, and 2nd to JERSEY TOWN last out. SHACKLEFORD seems to be at his best when he can shake loose from the field and take them as far as he can. Not sure he will be able to do that in this bunch. EMCEE is extremely sharp right now. He smashed the field in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga going seven furlongs last out and looks like he should have no trouble getting a mile. He was flattered when JERSEY TOWN came back to win his next race as well. He has great tactical speed and should get a perfect trip in this spot. #3 JERSEY TOWN scored in the Grade 2 Kelso but had it all go his way in that race. He was able to sit along the rail behind dueling front runners and did not have a stone in his path as he was able to slide up the rail to pick up a comfortable score. JERSEY TOWN has been hampered by foot problems throughout his career, but looks to finally be over them. He was a nice 8-1 in that race, and will be much lower than that following that easy win. He will be picking up 10 pounds from that one, and has to be played against. #1 RAIL TRIP seems to be quite happy to be back in SoCal with a win in the San Diego after not running much on the East Coast. He has three wins at Santa Anita, but they all came over the former surface. He is winless on dirt. #5 FED BIZ was knocked off the Derby trail earlier this season and is trying to make up for it now. He is a perfect three for three going a flat mile and looks to love finding a dog fight on the front end. Missing the heat of the summer may have set this guy up for a big fall campaign. #9 SECOND CITY won the BC Derby two starts back before a nightmare journey in the Indiana Derby. SECOND CITY was ultra impressive when he won the race at Hastings as he rallied from last in what was the first time he was in behind runners. He then took a shot at Hoosier but the rider couldn’t decide what to do with him and he was started and stopped a number of times while racing wide. He is very talented, but is he good enough to beat these?


Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
This has to be the toughest race on either of the two cards. 14 are entered to come down this unique turf course, and there has to be said for the horses who have experience going from the turf to dirt then back to turf at the head of the lane. #1 CALIFORNIA FLAG owns the hill at Santa Anita winning five of his seven tries, including the 2009 renewal of this race. Problem is, he has drawn the rail for this one. He’s never been on the rail in his life, and not sure this is the best time to try it. Is very speedy from the gate, but will need some racing luck when they make that signature right turn. #11 MIZDIRECTION is unbeaten in her two tries down the hill, but will be trying to knock off the boys in this one. She has been on the sidelines since May when she didn’t show the same explosion late in the race. She has been training like a bear for the return, and this camp has had this spot in their sights for a while. Puype is good off the bench, and her best puts her in the mix here. May be able to get first run on the closers. #9 BRIDGETOWN is the morning line favorite, but there may be some distance questions. He has been kept mainly at 5 ½ furlongs, and should find plenty of company up on the front end. No doubting his talent since he has won nine of his 19 races, but has flopped as the chalk multiple times. #13 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE made no mistakes in his first race locally as he rolled to an easy victory in the Eddie D. Had a similar post in that one, and looks like he still has room for improvement. #14 STARSPANGLEDBANNER came back to the track this season after a failed attempt in the breeding shed. Was a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe before going to the sidelines, and is a seven time winner in his career. The talent is obviously still there, and he seems to have needed the first few starts back he has had. Three year old filly #7 RENEESGOTZIP has plenty of speed and is a graded stakes winner, but, has never tried a turf surface in her starts. She is by City Zip so she should have no problem sprinting on the grass, but this is a pretty tough spot to try something this different. #6 UPGRADE seems like an intriguing longshot in this bunch. He will be cutting back off a number of seven furlong and mile attempts, and has never been this short in his career. Could set him up with some added stamina in the lane when it’s time to lay it down.


Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
#4 SHANGHAI BOBBY will go off favored here, and with good reason blowing out every field he has faced. Easy wins in the two biggest races for two year olds on the East Coast and should have no problem with the added 1/16th he gets today. Favorites have won this race 54% of the time. #8 FORTIFY has been chasing SHANGHAI BOBBY in this last three, but should love every bit of ground he gets going forward being by Distorted Humor, out of an A.P. Indy mare. One advantage he may have over the top pick is he has been running without Lasix and that could help since the two year old races this year are all with NO LASIX. #9 POWER BROKER freaked in his dirt track try as he blasted the Grade 1 FrontRunner field by more than six. He did get a good trip from the outside on a speed favoring track, and it will be interesting to see how he stacks up with this bunch. Headed in the right direction. #7 CAPO BASTONE made up a ton of ground in the race that POWER BROKER won, again on a track that was favoring speed. That was his dirt debut, and he can’t give up that much group to this top flight field. #2 SPEAK LOGISTICS invades from Calder which is notorious for having a very deep and stamina building dirt surface. He has reeled off a pair of easy victories since the blinkers were added, but will find more pace pressure today. That ship from Calder worked last year for the Filly and Mare Sprint winner Musical Romance. #3 HE’S HAD ENOUGH throw out his last race at Keeneland as he was off slow and had a nightmare trip after that. As he started to creep closer on the turn the field stacked up and he had nowhere to run, almost running over other horses and bumping another one. He has a sharp drill over the surface from the gate getting ready for this, and would expect him to be in contact with the field in his second start with blinkers. Does need a good start to get there.


Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf
#1 POINT OF ENTRY has won five straight races coming into this with the last three being Grade 1 events. Yes he is the best turf horse right now in America, but who has he really been beating. Europeans have dominated in this event since its inception, winning 17 of the 28 renewals – don’t expect that to change in 2012. #3 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY is the defending champ of this race with a dominating performance last season. He comes into this race in a similar form cycle to the one he did last season, and should be primed for another big effort. #5 SHARETA will be a filly taking on the boys, but she has had no problem doing that in the past. He beat in June versus the boys came at the hands of a horse who came right back to win another Group 1 event. She then went on to win her next two, beating The Fugue in August – The Fugue will be one of the favorites to win the Filly and Mare Turf Friday. Throw out the last try for ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and SHARETA in the Arc de Triomphe – it came over a ground that was basically soup. The rider never asked either horse for their best and just made sure they got home safe. The return to firm ground should be a welcome change. #12 TRAILBLAZER may have a leg up on these foes being in the country for a while, having prepped for this spot in the Arroyo Seco Mile at Santa Anita. The distance was not enough for him, and he should relish the added half mile he gets today. He is a top class turf horse, so don’t let the spotty record at the distance throw you off, he has been taking on the best in the world. #9 DULLAHAN is sure to attract support based off his Pacific Classic win in California, but he may just be a better horse on synthetic tracks. What he did last out in the Jamaica at Belmont is a head scratcher, and it wasn’t good to see him be apprehensive when he was going down the hill for the first time locally. #11 SLIM SHADEY is a two time Grade 2 winner over this lawn, but he was beating small fields, and his European form before coming here was spotty at best. There isn’t a lot of speed in this race, so he may get a cozy trip up front. #7 LITTLE MIKE will be your pace setter, but it’s hard to believe he will be able to take them the whole way. #6 COGITO is interesting in his second try here in North America. He topped DULLAHAN in the Jamaica last out, and you only have to look back to his last race in Europe to find a key race. Bayrir beat him that day, and then came to America to take the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington. Dettori rode him to a victory a back in May, so have a look at what should be very fair odds.


Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Another very tough race on this championship Saturday. #11 AMAZOMBIE will be looking to defend his title, and make amends for an odds on defeat last out where he finished 4th. He had been away a few months before then, and the thought was that it would be a prep for the bigger stage of this race. He won his last two tries running for the second time off the bench, and could be set to fire again. #4 COIL seems to have found rejuvenation since he was turned back to sprinting. He won a tight photo over a pair of runners he meets again today, and is a perfect three for three at six furlongs. COIL’s flexible running style should give him every chance to win. #2 JIMMY CREED gets a chance to turn the tables on COIL and CAPTIAL ACCOUNT after a tough beat behind them last time. He is just a three year old, but he has been brilliant in his races so far. He didn’t make it to the track until May, but he looks like he is coming into his own of late, and Mandella knows where the winners circle is on Breeders’ Cup day. The inside draw isn’t ideal, but he should make a good account of himself. #6 FAST BULLET is the unknown. Having only run twice, and his latest being in November of 2011. He’s been away for 357 days now, but has been working brilliantly and would have to imagine Baffert knows what he is doing throwing him to the wolves in this spot. Don’t forget what a great training job he did with Midnight Lute with a similar setup as he won his second consecutive Breeders Cup Sprint title. #8 CAPITAL ACCOUNT gives Baffert a three headed monster in here. This late runner sprinter has come into his own of late, and has yet to miss the board in his 10 race career. #7 THE LUMBER GUY is one who will take plenty of attention off his big win in the Vosburgh. His odds that day were lower than they should have been as his entry mate Sean Avery was the one they were playing – he would have been closer to 20-1 if he was on his own. Regardless, it was a big run and you can’t take that away. It was easily the best race of his career, and maybe he has blossomed while taking the summer off.


Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Mile
Showdown between the top milers #2 WISE DAN and #6 EXCELEBRATION. WISE DAN has been the best horse in training in North America this season, winning Grade 1 races over three different surfaces in the past 12 months. Lately he has excellent when running a mile on the turf. He hasn’t been threatened in his last three, making easy sweeping moves each time to cruise home under wraps. It would have been hard to be more visually impressive than he has been of late, and this five year old is on top of his game. Many regard Frankel to be the best horse in the world, so what does that make EXCELEBRATION. All he has done is pick up wins in eight of his 14 starts, with the only horse to beat him since he broke his maiden being Frankel. Four times he has been the runner up behind that freak, unfortunately he was just born during the wrong year. EXCELEBRATION has rattled off wins in his last two, both Group 1 events, with the latter being very impressive as he couldn’t find room, and when he did he exploded through. Cityscape is a common horse between the top two, and they have both beat up on him. Biggest concern here is the turn back on short notice. He last raced on October 20th in England, and now has shipped and will run again in two weeks. Something he has never done in his career. Hard to separate the them. #3 OBVIOUSLY streaks into this a winner of three straight, and seems to be getting better each time out. The margin of victory was deceiving in his last as it reads a half length, but he was never asked to run in the end, and he was 10 in front again on the gallop out. Could try to send and steal this race on the front end. #9 MOONLIGHT CLOUD has never had a problem beating the boys doing so in a pair of Group 1 events. She is in the skilled hands of Freddie Head who has won this race five times – twice and a rider, and three times as the trainer of Goldikova. She came within a head of beating the undefeated Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. Both MOONLIGHT CLOUD and EXCELEBRATION are no strangers to packing this much weight, where as the majority of the field will be adding a bunch. #1 MR. COMMONS has all the talent in the world, but can’t seem to put it together. Play him to get a piece.


Race 12 – Breeders Cup Classic
In a race that has been memorable on so many occasions, #5 GAME ON DUDE looks like an absolute stand out. This is his track with five powerful wins in five tries. He couldn’t have looked much better disposing of the field in the Awesome Again, and seems to be getting better with each work. Very scary for the rest of the field as he seems to dig in late and pull away instead of idling. #11 MUCHO MACHO MAN has come into his own this season, but this distance may be a little more than he wants. #10 RON THE GREEK won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this season, but had the race handed to him when they went with suicide fractions early, and GAME ON DUDE skipped that dance. #2 FLAT OUT has won the Jockey Club Gold Cup in back to back years at this distance, but seems to do his best running at Belmont. #9 RICHARD’S KID has shown that the more ground, the better for him, but will have to try and turn the tables on GAME ON DUDE .


Matty J's Proposed Wagers for the Day

Best Bet – Race 5 – #9 GROUPIE DOLL
Longshot – Race 7 - #6 UPGRADE
Exacta – Race 7 - $1 Box – 6 , 11 , 13 , 14 – Cost: $12
Trifecta – Race 5 - $1 Trifecta – 9 with 3 , 5 , 8 , 10 with 3 , 5 , 6 , 8 , 10 – Cost: $16

Pick 4’s
Race 4 – 3 , 4 , 6 , 9
Race 5 – 9
Race 6 – 5 , 7
Race 7 – 1 , 6 , 11 , 13 , 14
Cost: $40

Race 9 – 3 , 5 , 6 , 12
Race 10 – 2 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 11
Race 11 – 2 , 6 , 9
Race 12 – 5
Cost: $60