Jason Beem's FROTW: Analysis, Predictions & Recap

The Red Smith is the final graded stakes on turf for the boys in New York, so for many it’s the last chance to get that much needed black type win.  At one mile and three eighths, it draws some solid distance turf males.  Precious Passion has been installed as the highweight, but has oddly been given an 8 to 1 morning line.  Precious Passion is a grade 1 winner and has amassed over $950,000 in career earnings, but comes off a dreadful performance at Belmont in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, over a very yielding course that afternoon.  Alan Garcia now takes the mount on this one who could be an enticing horse on the drop in class.  We will use him in our exacta play this week.

Summer Patriot is another who has been installed at 8 to 1 and a horse I think has a big shot.  He gets Javier Castellano who is a top turf rider on the NY circuit.  Summer Patriot tried Grade 1 runners last time and was well beaten, but that was a quagmire of a track that day at Belmont Park. 

The last horse we’re going to use is the number 7, Strike a Deal.  He doesn’t win very often but always usually puts in a good effort, so we will just put him in the second spot of the exacta play.

Wagering Strategies
$10 exacta 4,8 with 4,7,8
Total wagers: $40
Starting bankroll: $500
Bankroll left: $119