Feature Race of the Week—The Cleveland Gold Cup from Thistledown
This is a very interesting edition of the Cleveland Gold Cup this year as 8 Ohio-breds are set to contest the mile and one eighth distance at Thistledown. Hurley’s Way (#3) is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and comes off a solid second in the Green Carpet Stakes at River Downs. That was on the grass and the horse is yet to race on dirt, but he has lots of back class coming in from Southern California. Also trainer Doug Cowans and Rodney Prescott are top Ohio connections.
I’m going to use Hurley’s Way in a three horse exacta box along with Raise the Reward (#6) who goes for Tim Hamm, who is probably the top Ohio Stakes trainer in the state. Brother Terry (#7) is another contender who could jump up and is 6/1 on the morning line.
Today’s Bet: $5 Exacta Box 3,6,7
Total Bet Cost: $30
Current Bankroll: $843
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Feautre Race of the Week Recap---The Mother Goose
Well Rachael Alexandra won as expected and did so by almost 20 lengths. So far at the mile and one eigth distance she's 2 for 2, with both wins being over 19 lengths. She is scary good. Unfortunately for us, our exacta player was scratched early so our bet was a wash for the week. It's too bad too, because the 4 and 5 dueled each other as i was hoping, so i think that Don't Forget Gil would have been able to close in and get second, but alas we will move forward next week and try our luck in Cleveland at Thistledown for the $100,000 Cleveland Gold Cup!
Feature Race of the Week---The Mother Goose Stakes
The Mother Goose marks the start of the second half of the year campaign for Rachael Alexandra. Probably a slam dunk to be the champion 3 year old filly of the year and with a solid second half of the year, a great chance to be horse of the year. Rachael is 1/5 on the morning line and looks to completely dominate this field. There is other speed in this race so it will be interesting to see what Calvin Borel does, whether he takes it to them early, or lays back and comes from just off the pace. It’s a big advantage having a filly with such ratability.
As far as betting the race, well I think the option is to try and hook up an exacta with Rachael on top. So for that, I’m going to go a price horse underneath, #2 Don’t Forget Gil. She’s 15/1 on the morning line and is the only other horse in the race with a graded stakes win, which was the Florida Oaks down at Tampa. She ran ok in the Grade 2 gamely and threw a clunker at Pimlico in the Black Eyed Susan. She comes from off the pace, where as the other two horses that are given a shot in here, both will be up knocking heads with Rachael early on. My hope is that Rachael puts them away, and Don’t Forget Gil picks up the pieces.
Today’s Bets:
$20 Exacta 3 with 2
Total Bets: $20
Total Bankroll Balance: $853
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap--The Obeah Stakes
The Obeah Stakes went basically the opposite of how I handicapped it. Unbridled Belle was not very beatable, in fact she won by over 11 lengths. She was so much the best it was scary. My horse ran a very flat and even third and never at any point looked to be a contender. So we will move on and move forward as next week we move to Belmont Park for the Mother Goose which will feature Rachael Alexandra!! Should be an exciting day!
Feature Race of the Week---The Grade 3 Obeah Stakes from Delaware Park
The Obeah is an intriguing little race with a favorite that I think is very beatable, which makes it a good betting opportunity in my mind. Unbridled Belle is certainly the back class of the field and won this race last year by 5 and ¾ lengths. She’s a Grade 1 winner and goes for top connections. However, she is coming off two of the worst races of her career and could be on the downturn of a brilliant career at age 6.
So I’m going to take a shot with #8 Skylighter for the Bobby Frankel Barn and jockey Mike Smith. I can’t think Smith is going to fly cross country to run in a Grade 3 stakes unless he really thinks he’s going to win. The horse has good speed, can sit just off the pace and I think is the horse to beat.
Underneath I’m going to use three long shots, all at 10/1 or higher. #3 All Night Labor, #4 You Asked, and #6 All Smiles. We’re going to try our same exacta strategy, keying the top pick over three horses.
Today’s Bets: $10 Exacta key #8 with 3,4,6
Total Bet Cost: $30
Total Bankroll Balance: $873
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap---The Stephen Foster
Wow, that was a tough one to take as Einstein was probably the best horse and our longshot Macho Again ran huge to win. Einstein had all sorts of trouble, never had a clear run until the final yards, and still almost got second. It was a tough loss for us, but we’ll rebound next week and go to Delaware Park for the Obeah Stakes. We’ll see ya then!
Feature Race of the Week---The Stephen Foster Handicap
The Stephen Foster was won last year by Curlin who was the top older horse in the
country and probably the world. Well this year’s edition features Einstein who is probably the top older horse going right now. Coming off back to back Grade 1 wins in the Santa Anita Handicap and the Woodford Reserve Classic, it’s hard to think Einstein won’t win here. In fact, even his third place finish in the Donn Handicap was very impressive, because he broke from the wide outside post position with that short run up to the first turn at Gulfstream.
I really think Einstein is going to win. In fact I think his 2/1 morning line is a overlay and don’t think there is any shot he goes off that high of odds. But I’m going to do like last week and just key my top horse on top of a couple horses in the exacta and see if we can put up another winner.
Underneath I’m going to use number 2 Macho Again who has a good late closing style and is 10/1 on the morning line, and number 4 Arson Squad who has been working well for his comeback and has solid connections.
Today’s Bets:
$20 Exacta 3/2,4
Total Cost: $40
Bankroll left: $903
Starting bankroll: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap—The Charles Whittingham
Don’t adjust your computer screens, we actually won our bet this week!! Our little $30 exacta play yielded a payout of $147 dollars as Midships sat just off the early leader, took command turning for home and turned on the afterburners to win the Charlie Whittingham. The final quarter of the mile and one quarter race was 23 and 1, so they were flying down the homestretch. 6/1 shot Globetrotter got up for second and gave us the nice little payout we were looking for.
That puts the bankroll up to $943 dollars as we move next week to legendary Churchill Downs for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster next week.
Feature Race of the Week---The Charles Whittingham Handicap
The Charlie Whittingham is always a solid Grade 1 race, but this year features only 1 Grade 1 winner, and that’s the horse that won this race last year, #6 Artiste Royal. Artiste Royal has a deep closing style and is always dependent upon a strong early pace, something he may or may not get in this race.
#2 Midships has won two Grade 2’s in a row but has had pretty easy leads in both those starts. The presence of #3 Liquidity adds a horse that has some decent tactical speed to the race and could prove a bit troublesome to Midships.
My contention is that Midships is going so well right now that a little pace pressure might not hinder him. So I’m going to key him on top in the exacta over three horses, number #4 Globetrotter, #5 Madeo, and #6 Artiste Royal.
$10 Exacta 2 with 4,5,6
Total Bets: $30
Bankroll Balance: $796
Starting Bankroll $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap—The Nassua Stakes
Boy could I have not been more wrong about the Nassua Stakes. Not only did Rutherienne win at 4/5, but she absolutely crushed the field to win by 3 lengths going away in the end. My 1 horse and 10 horse were both pretty flat down the lane, but carrying the weight of being my picks has a way of killing a horses chances down the lane.
Well this week we’ll move out west and go to one of my favorite tracks, Hollywood park for the Charlie Whittingham!!
Feature Race of the Week—The Nassau Stakes from Woodbine
The Grade 2 Nassau Stakes features a nice field of ten assembled to go the mile and one sixteenth over the ever so large Woodbine turf course. Because of the size of Woodbine’s turf course, this is a one turn trip and features a very long home stretch. #5 Rutherienne has been installed as the 2/1 favorite but I think she is very very vulnerable. She hasn’t had a win in over a year, but that being said, has only been off the board in 2 of 18 starts, so clearly she is one to keep in your exotics. But I am going to try and beat her for the top spot.
#1 Tell It as It Is is going to be my top selection. This horse is a closer and has won 5 out of 12 at Woodbine. If you look at her last two races, she’s been severely wide in both starts, but still closed late. If she can avoid getting too much trouble on the one turn, and with the extra stretch, she is my top selection.
#10 Points of Grace enjoyed a fine winter at Fairgrounds where she had two wins and two seconds over the grass course. She has good tactical speed and should be somewhat close up for the long run in.
I’m going to key these two on top of a trifecta and an exacta play with #2 Roses N Wine, #5 Rutherienne, and # 6 Favorite Fantasy. Both numbers 2 and 6 are 15/1 on the morning line.
Today’s Bets:
$1 Trifecta 1,10/1,2,5,6,10/1,2,5,6,10 for $24
$2 Exacta 1,10/1,2,5,6,10 for $16
Total Bets: $40
Bankroll Balance: $826
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap---The Hanshin Cup
Man have my picks been lousy lately. I mean the pace was alright in the Hanshin Cup but my horses were just spinning their wheels for the most part, finishing third and fourth, but no where near the runaway winner Vacation or the second place finisher Dominican. I think next week I might decide who I’m going to pick, then throw them out and play the other horses. Hmmmm…there’s an idea!
In all seriousness we’ll be back next week with selections for the Nassua Stakes from our neighbors to the north at Woodbine. We’ll see you then for some Peameal, Polytrack fun from Ontario!
Feature Race of the Week---Hanshin Cup from Arlington Park
The Hanshin Cup is always a thrilling Grade 3 race from Arlington Park and the last two winners of the race are both in this years edition. Spotsgone won the race in 2007 and Coragil Cat won last years race.
Spotsgone (#5) is a patented front runner and the year he won, he was all alone the whole way. It doesn’t appear he’s going to get that kind of trip today as there is other speed signed on including #1 Stonehouse, and #4 Voy Por Uno Mas. The one turn mile is tricky, because even though it is a “route” in distance, they sometimes will go at it early like a sprint, and that could prove dangerous for the front runners.
That being said I’m going to try the same bet as last week, a three horse exacta box for $5, and go with three closers hoping that this race falls apart in mid stretch. I’m going to box #2 Cherokee Artist, #7 Amazing Results, and #8 Coragil Cat. All should be reserved early and will be making runs at the end, all have good records over the synthetic track at Arlington, and all go for very solid connections.
Today’s Bets:
$5 exacta box 2,7,8
Total bet cost: $30
Balance left: $866
Starting balance: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap--The Black Eyed Susan
Well we were somewhat on the right track with Payton D'Oro winning at 5/2 in the Black Eyed Susan. Unfortunately Bon Jovi Girl got up for the second spot and foiled our exacta as the number 7 horse who we played finished up third.
So we've been close lately, but unfortunately close in horse racing doesn't pay the bills. So we shall try our hand again next week as the Feature Race of the Week moves to beautiful Arlington Park for the Grade 3 Hanshin Cup. Picks will be up thursday afternoon, and don't forget you can always find our picks as well on www.955thegame.com on our weekly radio show, which can be found under the personalities section of their website.
Feature Race of the Week---The Black Eyed Susan
The Black Eyed Susan is the premier race for 3 year old fillies during the upcoming Preakness Weekend at Pimlico race course and with the top 3 year old filly in America, Rachael Alexandra going against the boys, there are plenty of opportunities for a number of these to step up and take the Black Eyed Susan.
The 2 to 1 favorite is a horse named Hooh Why (#1) who is a grade 1 winner and has certainly been excelling at route races. The trick is that those races have been coming over the all-weather surface. The Derby was proof that for the most part, horses that were coming off of the all weather didn’t run as well on the main track. Granted Pioneerof The Nile ran 2nd, but he was just a nose ahead of Papa Clem and Musket Man who have been trying dirt, while the poly horses such as General Quarters, Advice, and many others were up the track.
So I’m going to steer away from the favorite who also could get bet well because there isn’t a ton of speed in here.
I’m going to box #2 Payton D’Oro, #7 Casanova Move, and #8 Don’t Forget Gil. All three have good tactical speed, and if #5 Bon Jovi Girl can go at it with the favorite early, then we have a good shot of picking up the pieces.
Today’s Bet: $5 Exacta Box 2,7,8
Total Bet: $30
Total Bankroll: $896
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Feature Race of the Week Recap---The Peter Pan Stakes
The Peter Pan shaped up with #2 horse setting a blistering pace and he quickly gave up in the stretch. #3 Charitable Man took over and prevailed in a driving finish over the #6. We had the first two slots in our trifecta, but unfortunately the #4 horse got up into third late in the race and foiled our bet. But we'll be back at em next week with the Black Eyed Susan.
Feature Race of the Week---The Peter Pan Stakes
The Peter Pan is often used as a prep for the Belmont Stakes and this year’s race is no exception. Last year the race was won in stunning fashion by Casino Drive who was going to be the expected Belmont second choice behind Big Brown, but unfortunately had to scratch. Casino Drive went on to run in the Dubai World Cup.
This year’s edition is a small but talented field that features mostly also ran’s from the big Kentucky Derby prep races. Imperial Council has been installed as the 2 to 1 morning line favorite, even though I Want Revenge certainly handled him in their last two meetings. Imperial Council is one that could certainly win and could certainly hit the board, but I’m going to play around him and go with some better prices on top for my trifecta bets this week.
I’m going to put #1 Stately Character , #3 Charitable Man, and #5 Scorewithcater. Now based on last week, you certainly have to like the chances of #5 Scorewithcater because his last two starts he beat Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, both starts at Sunland Park. The Sunland Derby is turning out to be a key race with Mine That Bird and Advice both coming back to win Graded races in their next starts. Picks up top New York jockey for this, and is 10/1 on the morning line.
Today’s Bets!
$1 Trifecta 1,3,5/1,2,3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6
Total bet: $36
Total Bankroll left:$926
Feature Race of the Week Recap---The Kentucky Oaks
Well Rachael Alexander won…..by 20 ¼ lengths!!!!! She is so far ahead of her class this season it’s almost ridiculous. Jockey Calvin Borel must have gotten a sore neck looking around for competition, but there simply was none. Justwhistledixie was a late scratch, and she was the obvious second choice, so Rachael was clearly the horse to beat and she didn’t disappoint. Because of the scratch and the fact that a bomber ran up into second, we got blanked for the week, but only lost 6 bucks. We’ll be back at it again next week!!
Feature Race of the Week---The Kentucky Oaks
It appears that the 135th running of the Kentucky Oaks will be centered around Rachael Alexandra who is the 3/5 morning line choice in the most prestigious race in the country for 3 year old fillies. Rachael Alexandra (#6) has been nothing short of miraculous this season with three very powerful wins, two at Oaklawn Park and one at the Fairgrounds. In fact, her win in the Fairgrounds Oaks, she ran 1 second faster than Friesan Fire who won the Louisiana Derby later in the day at the same distance. Rachael Alexandra has done some great work at Churchill Downs as well, and has also succeeded over an off track, which there is liable to be at Churchill on Friday and possibly Saturday as well.
As far as alternatives to the favorite with some potential to run well, I look to numbers 4,5, and 8. Gabby’s Golden Gal (#4) comes off a breathtaking win in the Sunland Park Oaks, her first start over a dirt surface. Justwhistledixie (#5) has rattled off five consecutive wins and will be a clear second choice in the betting. Flying Spur (#8) ran a good second behind Rachael Alexandra and is lightly raced and gets Garrett Gomez.
So as far as betting, I’m going to key Rachael Alexandra on top in the trifecta and also box the other three in a small exacta box.
Today’s Wagers:
$2 trifecta 6 with 4,5,8 with 4,5,8=$12
$1 exacta box 4,5,8=$6
Total wagers: $18
Bankroll Balance: $950
Feature Race of the Week ---The Texas Mile
Unfortunately Jason Beem does not have selections available for you this weekend. His balance stands at $968 and will try to make it grow next Friday in the Kentucky Oaks. Check back soon!
Feature Race of the Week Recap---The Coolmore Lexington
Square Eddie made a breathtaking move on the far turn and looked to be every bit the winner as the field entered the stretch in the $300,000 Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes, but proceeded to flatten out inside the final furlong and was passed by Advice who went on to score at 15 to 1 under Garrett Gomez. Another long shot, Conservative ran up into the exacta at 17 to 1 with Square Eddie ending up third. We had Advice at the price in our wager, and we had Square Eddie, but alas, Conservative getting up into second cost us our win this week. Do take note that number 12 Hull was a late scratch, thus reducing our bet to $12.
We’ll be looking for another price winner next week when we look at the Texas Mile Stakes which will be taking place at Lone Star Park next Saturday afternoon. Be sure to check here each week as we analyze our feature races of the week, and also you can check out my Podcast page at 955thegame.com under the personalities section.
Jason Beem
The $300,000 Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes represents one of the final opportunities for 3 year olds to gather up those precious graded earnings to be eligible for the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd. A full field of 12 has shown up all hoping to reserve a spot on the first Saturday in May
Square Eddie is probably the biggest name in the field because of his solid work as a two year old when he finished second behind Midshipman in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. He has proven he can run around two turns and that he can run on the synthetic. He finished a mildly disappointing second in his seasonal debut at 3/5 in the San Rafael Stakes, beaten by The Pamplemousse.
There are lots of horses with a great chance to win and in a 12 horse field, there is only one horse with a 20 to 1 morning line. A couple of long shot chances that I really think could run big are #2 Omniscient, #5 His Greatness, #11 Advice and #12 Hull.
Hull and His Greatness are my two bomber plays. His Greatness is the longest shot on the morning line at 20 to 1 and comes off a decent third place finish at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby. He was very close to some solid fractions and still kept on to finish third. Hull is 2 for 2 with two monster wins at Fairgrounds and Turfway Park. He’s got a lot of speed and should be on the lead or very close to it. The post is not terribly kind, but with the short stretch run to the first wire at Keeneland, being on or close to the lead could be very helpful.
Over 55,000 people attended the 73rd running of the Grade 2 $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and they witnessed a great race between Papa Clem and Old Fashioned. Old Fashioned was sent off as the even money favorite and set very demanding early fractions of 22.65 and 46.19 for the opening quarter and half mile. Papa Clem was backed down to 4 to 1 and is generally a front runner. However in the Arkansas Derby he was taken back off the pace by jockey Rafael Bejarano and sat fifth throughout the early portions of the race. Bejarano guided Papa Clem four wide around the turn and they engaged the leader Old Fashioned at the Quarter Pole.
As they entered the stretch, Papa Clem looked as if he would draw away from Old Fashioned, but the favorite dug back in and battled all the way down the lane. In the end Papa Clem took home the $600,000 winner’s share by half a length. Old Fashioned finished up second and long shot Silver Bird finished up third.
After the race it was discovered that Old Fashioned had suffered a knee slab fracture and while the injury is not life threatening at all, he is off the Kentucky Derby trail and possibly will be forced to retire.
In our exacta box for the week, we didn’t have Papa Clem so we start the summer season down $20 early, but it’s a long road to October and I’m very optimistic about the races in the coming weeks.
Don’t forget next week our Feature Race of the Week is the $300,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and we’ll have our picks posted up on the website early Friday afternoon